Friday, May 11, 2012

Railway planning, the great leap forward, the original target 5 years ahead

" Railway ' full ' development planning (hereinafter referred to as planning ) has recently issued to each province hair changes appoint railway office and related departments, agencies." Close to the railway ministry told a reporter. Plan to2015, countrywide railroad business course of development amounts to 120000kilometers, build dimensions to exceed 40000km rapid railway network, railroad multiple track rate and report rate of 50% and60%.
Prior to this railway ministry2004 establishment of the railway network in long-term plan, to 2020railway mileage of 100000 km, this means that the"45" reached the target,5 years ahead of schedule plan.
Reporter discovery, the planning and presentation" Yuejin" state, while the current railway construction funds are heavily relying on bank loans and debt settlement. Northern Jiaotong University professor Rong Zhao and on the development patterns of persistent expressed great concern, he suggested that the early railway reform, the railway debt liquidation.
Constantly increased planning.
The closer to the railway ministry said," the planning from 2010April began the establishment, now officially released."
And the reason why be long in coming, according to the person explained," from 2010 to now, especially over the past 2011, railway system change too much."
First minister of Railways Liu Zhijun suddenly dropped, resulting in including the Ministry of Railways bureaus and the local railway bureau of human affairs concussion, but occurs subsequent to the7/ 23of the State Council accident and let to rethink and adjust high-speed rail strategy, these big changes to the planning, it is guiding principles, or a specific project entry, it produced not little effect.
The planning delay of another reason comes from the provincial Ministry of the game.
Northern Jiaotong University School of management professor Rong Zhao and said:" the Ministry of Railways has its own planning, this is the2004 establishment of the railway network planning and the 2008 adjustment of railway network plan, the two plan is to2020, supposedly in the twelfth five-year plan planning within the time. But planning changes faster than. The local government especially the western provinces to build the railway is very active, sometimes pushing the Ministry of Railways planning adjustments, big fast some project."
A the company Railway Group expert told the reporter,2008in long-term railroad network plans to adjust soon afterwards, some of the projects began to" adjust", and it is to the height adjustment, that is to say the line should be adjusted into passenger dedicated line.
Rong Zhao and concluded that, when planning adjustment, almost all line mileage line specifications, improve, only upwards, not to decline.
The planning and the railway network in20042008after adjusting for long-term planning and planning than, and" make a spurt of progress .".
The2004plan, to 2020, countrywide railroad business course of development to achieve 100000 kilometers. In 2008adjusted the planning section, which was changed to:" to 2020 our country railroad business course of development to achieve 120000 kilometers above." In the recently released" Twelfth Five-Year Plan", implementation of this one target date was rescheduled to 2015.
In addition to railroad total course of development, high grade passenger dedicated line especially the construction and opening of the mileage in planning this is also improved.
In 20042020construction planning of passenger dedicated more than 12000 kilometers,2008, digital was raised to16000 km. And this made under the program, not only increase the mileage, time also accelerated, the program says, to 2015, the basic build 40000kilometers above the rapid railway network.
The closer to the railway ministry sources, planning is largely the province of the outcome of the game, local NDRC Railway Office will put in place the project reported to the Ministry of railways, railway ministry approval feels most comfortable writing planning", can only more, not less reported".
The result is, each amendment plan will be large than the previous. Not only that, but also because each province for several lines of stations and lines to disagreement occurred, resulting in some provinces of the project has not set down, this is also the "Twelfth Five-Year Plan" development planning has not completed a reason.
High debt type yuejin.
Railway construction" Twelfth Five-Year Plan" substantial overweight is a major cause of local government was reported, fast railway project.
Shaanxi Province during "the Twelfth Five-Year Plan" will be built West Po, big west, West into14 projects. The construction scale of the project is about 2500 kilometers, a total investment of about200000000000 yuan, in addition to parts of the project are transferred to the"45" early built outside, most projects will be built into operation in 2015.
Xinjiang in the"12th Five-Year Plan" will be built in Lanzhou to Urumqi second double fast railroad8coal projects. The project is expected to investment will amount to 120000000000to 150000000000 yuan.
Huge construction plan and investment needs a lot of money to "bill". But in the first quarter of this year, the Ministry of Railways construction investment situation, in 2012 one quarter of the Ministry of Railways infrastructure investment amounts to 113100000000 yuan, and mainly concentrated in third months, beginning with the January 8700000000 yuan and20800000000 yuan in February, called the blowout.
These investments in infrastructure,91500000000yuan on bank loans, accounted for80%. But by the end of 2012, the Ministry of Railways total debt already amounted to 2429836000000 yuan, and in a quarter of the cost of principal and interest, light requires the expenditure of 28400000000 yuan.
This is not to rely on its own funds, also do not rely on state through bonds or financial allocations to the railroad building mode, Rong Zhao and expressed great concern:" high-speed rail project's rate of return is very pessimistic, one quarter of railroad deficit amounts to 7000000000, such a big debt hole to fill, this model is able to maintain when."
A reporter from the financial system sources informed that next week, railway ministry issued a total or20000000000corporate debt, in order to solve the problem of railway construction fund.
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