Speak of the Nuclear Safety Summit in Seoul, Chinese President Hu Jintao has emphasized that nuclear energy plays an irreplaceable role in energy security and tackling climate change. And the views expressed by Premier Wen Jiabao in Abu Dhabi a few months ago echoes - the safe and efficient development of nuclear power is a strategic choice to solve the future energy supply. It can be seen that the Chinese will be widely promoted civil nuclear program.However, this civilian nuclear program or face of China's uranium reserves are very limited reality, which will contribute to future dependence on foreign uranium supply, and the current dependence on overseas trade of the Chinese uranium supply is not low. The future of China will face more challenges in ensuring the safe development of civilian nuclear power.Uranium History: From a buyer's market to a seller's market.The uranium industry in the 1940s, most mainly used in the military. 1953, the peaceful uses of atomic energy program, first proposed the development of civilian nuclear energy advocate. In the 1960s, the United States Energy Board is prohibited in domestic reactors using imported uranium, and slashed the price of domestic uranium exports. During this period, the rest of the world uranium supply.At that time, except the United States, Canada and other major producer of uranium country producers are trying to mitigate the impact of U.S. policy, in an attempt to change the pattern of global uranium market. In June 1972, a secret international uranium cartel was formally established, known as the Uranium Association for the Study of its activities, including an agreed price, bid-rigging and part of the market. But in 1976, this organization disintegrated in the antitrust lawsuit.Since the end of the Cold War, the secondary uranium resources available increase in uranium spot prices plummeted in the 1980s and 1990s. Coupled with the impact of the Chernobyl nuclear accident, the enthusiasm of the new nuclear power plants worldwide, thereby promoting the spot price to fall further, the production also declined. From the early 1980s to 2001, uranium prices have continued to slump, the fluctuations between $ 10 pound. However, since 2001, uranium prices rebounded from historic lows, and has been increased to 2007. Historically, the price of uranium had risen to a high of 136 U.S. dollars per pound. In the past 25 years, uranium production insufficient investment has become increasingly apparent.From the uranium spot market from 1980 to 1994, 15 years, has been a buyer's market, from 1998 to 2003. But now the situation is exactly the opposite. Because of the special historical reasons, uranium, and there is no formal market place. Less than 15% of the global uranium trading of spot way.Limited impact in the Fukushima nuclear accident.Fukushima accident had a negative impact on the global uranium market. February 2011 to August, the stock index fell about 30 percent, the spot price fell to $ 49.13 from $ 72.63 per pound. Fukushima earthquake and tsunami occurred five days later, the Chinese State Council to suspend approval of new nuclear power projects, a comprehensive security review of all its nuclear program is running and under construction.Chinese companies are also a positive response to the changing situation, trying to complete the renegotiation of the investment plan yet to be determined. In early May 2011, the China Guangdong Nuclear Power Group (CGNPC, hereinafter referred to as "China Guangdong Nuclear Power") to withdraw a value of up to $ 1.24 billion attempt to acquire a controlling stake in Kalahari (Kalahari Game Reserve) Mining Co., Ltd. offer. In the autumn of 2011, the two sides to renegotiate the final price of nearly $ 1 billion in February 2012 to reach an agreement.But in the end most analysts believe that the Fukushima nuclear accident on the uranium market is limited. Royal Bank of Canada capital markets that the uranium price index compared to the bubble period in 2007 decreased, but still higher than the 2008 low, and that the next 20 years, uranium demand will average 4 percent growth rate. The bank expects 2013 uranium price will be $ 80 per pound.The global uranium market is entering a crucial transition, which strongly support the rising price of uranium. The world's uranium production to meet the 75% of global demand, the rest rely on the release of uranium resources in the military reserves to meet this reserve resources is rapidly reduced. In fact, the US-Russian highly enriched uranium purchase agreement will terminate in 2013, the program has Russian nuclear weapons remaining highly enriched uranium into the commercial power reactor fuel in the United States.In the global uranium market, the inter-State relations still plays a very important role. For example, China's investment in its Central Asian neighbors, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, will feel more comfortable, because these countries have established a long-term and stable relationship, while the importing countries of the European uranium in dealing and exporting countries in Africa experienced. Since the current global uranium market is still not transparent to other commodity markets, the degree of government involvement and deeper then the uranium market will continue to be the history of bilateral relations or regional political influence.More dependent on uranium imports will be inevitable.In 2007, the Chinese National Development and Reform Commission in 2020 the goal of the Internet capacity of nuclear power is set to 40 GW in 2009, this goal was revised to 60 Kat ~ 70 GW. According to the data of the World Nuclear Association (WNA), China's current nuclear reactors run 15, in the construction of 26 171, plans to build in the next 15 years in the planning stages. China National Energy Board, Deputy Secretary, said Qian Zhimin, can contribute 7% to 8% of the energy needs of nuclear power in 2020, this proportion is higher than the official government target of 5%.China's proven uranium resources are more scarce. WNA's data show that China has proven mineable uranium resources is only 6.8 million tons, less than 1% of the world's total. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA) data, the uranium production in 2010 was only 827 tons, while the 2011 uranium consumption has reached 4400 tons. In this case, China will inevitably be more dependent on uranium imports.The basic principles of China's uranium policy is the two markets and two resources, "the development of the country (including the development of advanced nuclear power systems or alternative nuclear power to save fuel) and international (cross-border acquisitions, investments and long-term contract) two resources . 2020 natural uranium supply situation will be: 1/3 from domestic production, 1/3 from the direct procurement from foreign suppliers, 1/3 from the overseas holdings of uranium production.As part of the "going out" strategy, China is gradually to obtain uranium resources from overseas. Uranium in Niger and Kazakhstan has mining interests, and is to invest in Uzbekistan, Mongolia, Namibia, Algeria and Zimbabwe, to import uranium from Australia and Canada. In many ways, China's iron ore and copper markets did not appear in the uranium market. China has just participated in the uranium market, and therefore China can draw lessons from handling highly dependent on imports of goods transactions.The internationalization of the challenges are many.Chinese companies in the international aspects of the supply of uranium resources is also facing many challenges such as lack of management of the international uranium mining company's experience, ignorance of foreign laws and policies, lack of response to the experience of uranium resources in the country's political risk.In 2009, the world's six largest uranium mining company has occupied 77% of global market share - AREVA (Areva,) accounted for 17% of Cameco (Cameco, the), 16%, Rio Tinto (Rio Tinto) accounted for 16 %, the Kazakhstan State Atomic Energy Corporation (Kazatoprom) accounted for 13% In For ARMZ / Rosatum accounted for 9%, BHP Billiton (BHP Billiton) accounted for 6%.Political risk, in addition to corruption and resources in the country political instability that may occur, uranium resources in the country, mostly in Central Asia and Africa, must be able to respond to the diplomatic tensions that may occur. Given the forecast of the global uranium market is in short supply in the next few years, is considered the most reliable uranium market in Central Asia will also be highly competitive. Buying large quantities of uranium in Russia, South Korea and Japan in Central Asia, India and Iran also intends to increase the volume of imports from Central Asia. Faced with such intense international competitive environment. China needs to take a smart foreign policy to maximize imports of interests in a number of a seller's market.Another political risk from the domestic public opinion of China and the resource-exporting countries such as Australia's silent attitude of the development of nuclear power at home and abroad has been the country's uranium export capacity affected. Therefore, when plans to invest abroad, uranium, Chinese enterprises need to successfully grasp the understanding and views of the public for their actions.China should actively participate in international cooperation.In the world's uranium production, uranium produced in Canada is the highest quality. In fact, only Canada has a lot of uranium ore content of between 1% and 20%. Canadian uranium production is expected will be the average annual growth rate of 9%, to 15,300 tons in 2016.Canadian Prime Minister's visit to China in February 2012, China signed the Protocol amending the bilateral nuclear cooperation, designed to allow Canadian exports to China uranium enrichment material. Ensure energy security for China to achieve the diversification of energy supply channels is great news. Canada from direct exports to China uranium fuel, prior to the deal in Canada is prohibited.China has two of CANDU reactor (Atomic Energy of Canada Corporation), and is considering the construction of several groups. China is now from 9 light-water reactor fuel recycling. CANDU reactors can also thorium as fuel, China has been the development of thorium fuel recycling system and Canada. Thorium reserves in China is relatively rich, low mining costs, and produce less pollution. If successfully developed, will enhance the level of China's energy security.Countries are being negotiated to establish a meaning in the coordination of the cooperation mechanism of the world's uranium enrichment activities. This mechanism will help to enhance the tracking of the enriched fuel at the global level to facilitate the coordination of enriched fuel in the global market. Nuclear experts in calling for the establishment of an international uranium enrichment banks, on the one hand guarantees of channels to obtain enriched uranium, on the other hand to prevent a number of national independence to build their own uranium enrichment nuclear facilities.This level in the developing countries, China has the opportunity to play a leading role. In fact, China actively providing nuclear safety assistance, and concentrate on helping developing countries establish and improve nuclear safety infrastructure, and improve the technical standards of nuclear safety.Nuclear Security Summit in Seoul, the countries on the harmonization of safety standards and encountered many difficulties, China has the will and other developed countries to cooperate in this field. Over the years China has made considerable efforts in the field of nuclear safety. China is one of the international community, is the world to enhance nuclear safety efforts an integral part of. In fact, China is already a mature IAEA Member States, and to prevent international nuclear proliferation, cooperation in civilian nuclear technology and energy companies of the French Areva, Atomic Energy of Canada and the U.S. Westinghouse and other companies. also involved in the international governance framework. But more need of such international cooperation at the multilateral level to carry out, in particular, resource procurement and nuclear safety dialogue.China's energy demand is growing rapidly, so that the parallel development of a civilian nuclear program is inevitable.
China crisis in manufacturing source: blend in with the overall economic
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