" In 1994the price of imported iron ore as the base, according to our index calculation, to the present price rose 500%, while steel prices rose only 26%, the steel industry can not difficult?" CISA vice-chairman Wang Xiaoqi 17in Qingdao at the international iron ore market workshop.
Economic Herald reporter from the China Steel Association recently held the first information learns on the meeting, one quarter of the national iron and steel enterprises economic benefits continues to drop, already by before a stage production industry losses, into the new century the first industry-wide losses.
Wang Xiaoqi thinks, China's iron and steel industry into the loss of the entire industry, iron ore prices have no reason to maintain such a high price, the future price of space is larger, not more than 130dollars / ton more reasonable.
" From 2002 to2012is the ten year of iron ore of gold period, at present, it is in the past, the rest of one's life if it is not for another ten years ( golden age )." " My iron and steel" network president Zhu Junhong said.
Steel enterprises target : the first half loss.
Wang Xiaoqi said, from the rise and fall of China Steel Association of domestic steel price index, more than 10years, steel price increases far behind the imported iron ore prices.
However, he also expresses at the same time, the base of the choice of law does not necessarily science. In 1994China's economy is in a period of rapid growth, the steel prices at a relatively high position. At the same time, the cold rolled plate and other high value-added steel production is relatively low, the index by arithmetic average rather than the weighted average, the calculation is relatively high, leading to price increases slowly. " But a hundred, a few, big trend exists."
" Trade beneficial result glides all the way, in January this year and February deficit, estimated that in March the best result is flat. Our goal is not to lose the first half of this year, a slight profit." According to Wang Xiaoqi, the four quarter of last year iron and steel industry, a loss of 4800000000 yuan, profit by the mining, financial and other non - steel industry, iron and steel enterprises at present day very difficult.
" My iron and steel" network chief analyst Jia Liangqun said, from the last four or five months to eight or nine months, steel prices have been relatively strong, but then began to decline, appeared for many years no dull situation. At present, the real estate market is stagnant, engineering machinery and other industries deceleration, the next phase of steel enterprises still take the " stock", five, in June three or four quarter is expected to callback, is valued.
Iron ore traders: only" earn money".
" If the iron and steel demand short-term trend reversal, iron ore prices will not rise." Jia Liangqun said.
Wang Xiaoqi argues that, despite the current iron ore supply and demand is tight, but with structural adjustment, economic slowdown, steel demand will drive the iron ore demand; supply side, a few miners last year's $about 40000000000profit will stimulate the expansion of production capacity, coupled with the domestic mining, the increase of overseas mining interests, has been basically formed situation of supply exceeding demand, iron ore prices began falling into the channel.
Zhu Junhong believed that, because there is still a demand, iron ore prices drop too won't big, but also difficult to go up. The next stage, iron ore prices in a small range, and iron ore traders will only do service" to earn some money".
Hunan Valin Lianyuan iron and steel company chief analyst Liu Xi thinks, short-term inside the price of imported iron ore will continue to show a steady upward trend, expected highs of $158/ ton, annual fluctuations to be narrowed, mean in the 150 U.S. dollars / tons.
More than iron ore traders and demand the steel enterprises and related responsible person said, the next stage, the iron ore price or will remain at 145U.S. dollars / ton to 155 U.S. dollars / tons, and iron ore traders future profitability will be the next $10spread decision.
Xinhua metallurgical Holdings Limited Purchasing Department Deputy General Manager Wu Jiahao said, steel market this year big market is difficult to occur, but does not rule out a small market, iron ore price breaks through 155 dollars / tons or even160 dollars / ton is possible. In this case, in the domestic and overseas mineral ore, stock, futures and spot, long association with the spot and so on, to do a good job matching. "In the short term on or buy, options to be early, long-term should be cautious." He said.
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