China's April surprise a sharp deceleration in import and export of data.
Customs data published on Thursday showed that April exports growth in China has fallen to 4.9%, while import growth is falling sharply to 0.3%, far less than market expectations, weak imports cause rapidly expanded to us $ 18.42 billion trade surplus in the month.
European debt crisis spread of weak foreign demand, as a result of price factors eliminate, exporters suffer from raw materials costs and wage costs, is the reason why big slowdown in exports in April. Slower growth in domestic demand as a result of weakness in the domestic economy and the decline in commodity prices, the April import growth close to zero.
Turnover of trade data for April and bad spring echoes, several analysts polled said 10% import and export to achieve growth targets for the year great efforts are required.
Bad of trade data makes industry General expected, Government recent or raise stability foreign trade of policy has been in brewing in the of including export financing support, package stability export policy is expected to recent launched; and spring rendezvous Qian promote mouth of policy framework has in State Member meeting Shang finalized, specific policy still in drafted in the, trade situation of deterioration is expected to will accelerated energy, and raw materials and part life supplies imports rates of as soon as possible cut.
Growth target hard to 10%.
According to customs statistics, the first 4 months of this year, China's imports and exports valued at US $ 1,167,180,000,000, increase of 6% over the same period last year. Exports US $ 593.24 billion, an increase of 6.9%, and imports amounted to $ 573.94 billion, an increase of 5.1%; the accumulated trade surplus of US $ 19.3 billion.
Center for us-China relations, Tsinghua University, research fellow Zhou Shijian said, decline in exports of major involvement in the proliferation of the European debt crisis, China's exports to the developed world only growth or even decline slightly. Classification of data also shows that tradition in the three major markets, China and the European Union in April before trade growth of only 0.3%, Sino-Japanese bilateral trade a 1.5% drop, but 9.2% gains in Sino-US trade, Russia, and Brazil and other emerging market trade has taken a relatively fast growth.
Price is also considered to be one of the causes of the decline in exports. First textile network analyst Wang said that in order to textiles and clothing, for example, exports in this category last year at 20%, however, export volume is zero, this has made this year of export prices only single digit growth, still in decline in export volume channel.
January-April, textile and garment exports rose to 0.48%, significantly slower than 2.88% in the first quarter.
Huo Jianguo considers President of the Academy of international trade and economic cooperation, drag on exports and greater pressure from domestic, raw materials, wages, RMB exchange rate, rise in financing costs, and other costs, struggling major exporting provinces of zero edge. A case is that last year, China's market share in Europe, America and Japan began declining.
Import slowdown related to the fall in commodity prices. The customs statistics show, first in April of this year, 13.4% iron ore import price fell, soybean export price fell 7.6%.
In April, exports slowdown, makes the market for trading for the year judge of the situation more carefully. China Center for economic exchange analyst Zhang Yongjun said, once upon a time in April, trade, import and export to achieve its growth target of 10% little hope. Exports, the Agency to monitor exports of end of leading indicators in the near future, which means that the improvement in exports to about August or later to see.
Barometer Chinese export Canton fair feedback situation is not optimistic. Spring has just ended a fall in exports was the rare, total contract 36.03 billion dollars, monthly and per cent decline respectively and 4.8%, the last fair deal were seen in full after the outbreak of the financial crisis. Canton fair are considered to reflect the export situation for the next 6 months.
Stable foreign trade policy or raise.
Around April of this year, Vice Premier Wang Qishan continuous research in charge of foreign trade, and foreign trade situation in seven provinces in East China in early April at the forum requires municipalities to secure 10% of foreign trade growth target for the whole year.
Recent State Department senior rare frequently stressed the importance of stable growth of foreign trade, on the one hand margin in the first quarter of the import and export of data is far worse than official earlier expectations, and in China under the economic slowdown is widely expected, to try to keep 7.5% 's economic growth for the whole year, one of the troika must hold 10% of growth in foreign trade.
Another cause of stable growth of foreign trade from steady employment. Zhou Shijian said, more than 80 million people directly led to the employment of foreign trade, stable growth, stable growth in the traditional labour-intensive industries in particular, on employment is significant.
Zhou Shijian believes that steady exports policies should be introduced as soon as possible, the policy should not only cover the export credit insurance and export financing, due a rise in labour-intensive products should also be considered, as well as relatively high industry science and technology content of export tax rebate rate.
Another killer was the currency of stable export. Zhou Shijian said that, in the case of export situation is so grave, appreciation of the Renminbi against the dollar as if it were fuel, will further erode the already meagre profits of exporters. China's export industry average profit margins up to 5%.
Huo Jianguo considers policy to impose still requires careful, he proposes to wait a month or two. He suggested that stable exports, policies that can be introduced to improve the business environment, including stable business costs as much as possible, to increase credit support and improvement of customs and trade facilitation issues and quality.
"If this kind of stable export measures are unable to curb exports down, the considered stable export tax means. "In his view, the export tax rebates more difficult," should be considered central for more sharing ratio of export tax rebates, which may raise tax rebates more effective than writing it directly. ”
Deputy Zheng Jianrong, Director of the Office of foreign trade and economic cooperation of Guangdong Province at the Canton fair's Research Forum on the proposed, in the context of maintaining the basic stability of export tax rebate policy towards improving tax rebate proportion of individual commodities. In addition, due to the downturn in the property market, decline in local fiscal revenue this year will be more obvious, "hope that the Central Government can afford some proportion of export tax rebates, in full and in a timely manner to ensure that tax refund. ”
Take Guangzhou for example, Guangzhou local in every year ultra the base part of the burden of 2 billion of tax refund for export tax rebates, "good financial situation is good, bad financial situation when contradictions of the tax rebate will more prominent, current in the Northwest area of Eastern Guangdong, even so a stifling exports. "He said.
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