Since rebounded since bottoming in early November 2008, prices of nonferrous metals rose in 2009, due to strong demand in the lower support, copper, lead and zinc in 2009 to become hot, annual price increases, 122% and 103%, respectively, compared to nickel prices rose only to 42.8%. However, since the beginning of 2010, nickel price rises are quite amazing, a quarter of the "metal Star".
According to the Japanese securities non-ferrous metal industry researcher Wang Huachun introduced, based on the exchange of data, March gains since the beginning of copper, aluminum and Tin, 5.63%, 8.85%, respectively, lead, zinc fell and 11.64%, respectively, but the nickel price strong gains, gains since the beginning of 33.89%. Meanwhile, LME nickel inventories at the beginning of February after the hit record high of 166,000 tonnes above the began to decline, stock down about 6% so far, falling to the lowest level since the end of 2009.
Wang Huachun told reporters, warmer stainless steel demand is the main driver of strong nickel prices rose.
From the terminal of nickel consumption, downstream of the main demands of nickel in stainless steel. Since the first quarter of 2009, global stainless steel production began to rebound, strong rebound in most areas, global stainless steel production at 30.8% per cent in the 4th quarter of the year.
At the national level, stainless steel factory orders in the first quarter of the year is fairly substantial. In 2009, the global stainless steel production of about 24.83 million tonnes, falling for three consecutive years. But with global stainless steel production generally contrast to shrinking is, 2009 China stainless steel crude steel output of 8.8047 million tons, an increase of 26.81%, stainless steel covers global market share has increased from per cent in 2008 to the cent in 2009.
The other hand, the 2009 China stainless steel plant at near-maximum capacity most of the time, only in the fourth quarter, year-end inventory and to control response to the sharp fall in the international prices of nickel, stainless steel production, including main, taigang, baogang steel enterprises in the fourth quarter for a seasonal maintenance and production 15-25% in the third quarter.
According to Macquarie research, due to strong demand in domestic construction and household appliance industry and the gradual restoration of stainless steel prices, the major steel mills in the fast recovery of production and their future a high number of orders a month, mainly because traders and end users in the replenishment, as well as the expected demand in the second quarter would be better.
Wang Huachun think, future years stainless steel needs of recovery will makes 2011 global nickel market continued appears supply gap, on the, currently nickel of marginal cost in 16,000 $/tons upper and lower, this on nickel price up to larger of support role; but, due to currently LUN cross by of nickel high inventory also needed a time to digestive, so, 2010 International Nickel city of trend is may will appears ease of climbing hillside to, is expected to future two years nickel average is expected to respectively reached 20,500 $/tons, and 22,000 dollars/ton.
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